Republican nominee Donald Trump is trailing behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in most national polls. But what if there are some hidden facts that could lead to a Trump win?
Experts now wonder how accurate the polls, projections, and turnout models are. What if the so-called silent Trump supporter is real? Republicans have long said many of their supporters are afraid to voice their support of Trump because of social backlash.
This summer, a poll showed that more than a half of Democrats will tell their acquaintances how they plan to vote. By contrast, 46 percent of Republicans and just 34 percent of unaffiliated voters are willing to share their political views.
Michael Moore even talks about the so-called “closet anarchists,” who will vote for Trump just to send a message to a broken political system. Moreover, no one really knows for sure whether Bernie Sanders supporters would back Clinton.
Republicans also claim national polls may be inaccurate as pollsters “oversample” African-Americans and other minorities which are more likely to vote Democrat.
Plus, Trump’s rhetoric could convince some traditionally blue states to support him. He may be especially appealing to disgruntled white working class, which historically votes Democrat, and voters in Rust Belt states such as Ohio or Pennsylvania.
The Hidden Election
Experts claim all these tiny pieces make up a larger picture called the “hidden election” the media isn’t talking about. In this “election” pundits that know who’s going to win don’t, while those who do will cast the ballot on November 8.
On a national level, Clinton is 3.8 points ahead of Trump in polls. But in the last week, Clinton’s popularity plunged from 12-point-lead to nearly 4 points amid the WikiLeaks scandal.
WikiLeaks’ latest dump of e-mails hacked from campaign chairman John Podesta revealed the pay-to-play tactics behind Clinton Foundation, Clinton’s real intentions, close ties to U.S. rivals, and much more.
On top of that, the FBI briefed Congress on Friday that it would reopen the private email probe as new evidence has surfaced. Professor Helmut Norpoth who has correctly called the next U.S. president in the last five races said he bets on Trump.
Norpoth believes the real-estate tycoon will win by 52.5 to 47.5 percent. Additionally, artificial intelligence algorithms that analyzed social media, Google and YouTube input on this campaign suggest the Republicans will win. Plus, Prof. Allan J. Lichtman of American University in Washington, D.C., whose statistical model correctly predicted election winners between 1984 and 2000, says the billionaire will secure victory.
Trump needs to secure 270 electoral votes. But for that he will have to win all states Mitt Romney took in 2012 first. Next, he’ll need three more states such as Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
There are 11 battleground states, so the outcome of the election is not as clear as polls suggest. The election depends on these states which account for 146 votes. Trump, however, will need to flip just three of them to win.
Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan will likely vote Clinton. Iowa shows an interest in Trump, but Nevada and New Hampshire will probably stay blue. Yet, the GOP nominee will need only one of these three to land in the Oval Office if he managed to secure Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia.
Polls now show Clinton has a 0.7-point lead in Florida, Trump has 1.1 point lead in Ohio, and Clinton is leading over Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania. So, the race is pretty tighter than we might think.
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